Post wwii optimism and pessimism9/1/2023 So, the global illiteracy problem in 1900 can be said to have cost the world 12% of GDP. We estimate that if there had been no illiteracy in 1900, the world would have been $240 billion richer (in inflation-adjusted terms), equivalent to about 12% of global GDP at the time. Together with the Copenhagen Consensus, economists have attempted to assess the cost of illiteracy. ![]() South Korea’s per capita income grew 23-fold over this period, compared to Pakistan’s three-fold growth. Today, the average South Korean has 12 years of education, whereas the average Pakistani has fewer than six. For example, Pakistan and South Korea started with about the same level of education and income in 1950. The costs of poor education are substantial. In developing countries, similarly large (and continuing) gains were made from 1970 to 2000, with China recording the biggest improvement.įor a limited time, you can gain greater access to Project Syndicate – including every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, the full PS archive, and more – starting at just $84.99 $59.49 for your first year. In the prosperous West, rapid increases in literacy were achieved early in the twentieth century. ![]() Illiteracy today still afflicts 20% of the world’s population, but that is down sharply from an estimated 70% in 1900. Similarly, consider the amazing improvements in education. Economists estimate that in 1820, more than 80% of all people were extremely poor. While 1.2 billion people in the developing world still live on less than $1.25 per day – a problem that we certainly must address – the rate of extreme poverty has never been lower. New data from the World Bank show that the proportion of extremely poor people has more than halved over the last 30 years, from 42% of the global population in 1981 to 17% in 2010. So it is worth stepping back and recognizing that many indicators point to a world that is improving. Yet, asked for their opinion of how the world economy will fare, the score is almost even, with 32% believing that it will be better, and 30% that it will be worse. For 2014, almost 50% of those surveyed said that their lives will be better, with just 20% saying they will be worse off. Since 1977, Gallup International has asked people around the world whether they believe their lives will be better next year than they were the year before. The phenomenon is not limited to the United States. More people think their lives are improving, while others are doing worse, probably because of journalists’ persistent bias in favor of bad news. But, when asked the same question about the overall US economy, an average of 47% have said it is doing worse, compared to 38% who think it is doing better. Over the past 25 years, an average of 38% have said they are doing better, while 32% have said they are doing worse. As a result, we often think that the world is in worse shape than it is – even if we think our own lives are improving.Ĭonsider this: Since 1978, American consumers have been asked whether their current financial situation is better or worse than it was a year earlier. When we do, they feel like a guilty pleasure. Only occasionally do we get uplifting, things-are-getting-better stories.
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